ODM turns 20 amid deepening rift over the party's future, 'broad-based' deal
Differences in tone, thought, and political direction among party leaders have exposed a widening rift that could jeopardise ODM’s future.
Exactly one month after the death of its founder, Raila Odinga, the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) Party finds itself at a crossroads over unity, despite assurances from top honchos that it will remain intact in the post-Raila era.
Differences in tone, thought, and political direction among party leaders have exposed a widening rift that could jeopardise ODM’s future.
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The divisions came into sharp focus in Mombasa during the party’s ongoing 20th anniversary celebrations on Friday, as leaders openly disagreed on whether to support President William Ruto’s second-term bid or field their own presidential candidate in the 2027 General Election.
Leaders backing cooperation with the broad-based government, led by Mining Cabinet Secretary Hassan Joho, clashed with those opposed to the arrangement, led by Siaya Governor James Orengo, during separate meetings involving youth, women, and persons living with disabilities.
“We are not going back to demonstrations… Raila left us in the broad-based government… We are not going back to throwing stones,” said CS Joho.
Joho’s stance was swiftly rejected by Orengo, who insisted ODM must go it alone and front a presidential candidate against Ruto.
“There is no way ODM can beg Ruto. ODM is the party with the troops. I am not a coward to say we will not sell our party…who said ODM will not front a presidential candidate? Those saying ODM will not have a presidential candidate are naive. Let our party not go to the dogs… I have no fear. I’m prepared to go back to the streets,” declared Orengo.
Orengo’s position appeared to draw support from ODM Secretary General Edwin Sifuna and other unlikely quarters.
“Sasa kila mtu anasema aliongea na Raila kisiri, sasa si tufuate ile Baba alisema mbele yetu wote?” posed Sifuna.
Raila Odinga’s daughter Winnie Odinga added: “You cannot come up with boardroom decisions…ODM has its principles and fundamentals…”
ODM Deputy Party Leader Simba Arati struck a middle ground, “We are in broad-based until 2027, thereafter we shall field a candidate, and we will only work with friends of ODM.”
ODM turns 20 at a time when its internal drums beat in different directions. Once a single, defiant force behind Raila Odinga, the party is now a mosaic of competing visions, rival power blocs, and ideological realignments redefining its future.
One faction warns ODM risks fading into irrelevance if it abandons its traditional oppositional posture. They accuse leaders cooperating with the government of diluting the party’s legacy, weakening its structures, and confusing its base. Their tone is radical, their messaging confrontational, and their intent clear: reignite the Orange flame, the people-driven flame.
On the opposite flank, a contrasting school of thought led by Gladys Wanga and buoyed by newly confirmed party Chair Oburu Odinga sees political stability, not agitation, as the path to relevance. In Wanga’s camp are CS John Mbadi, Opiyo Wandayi, Sam Atandi, Junet Mohammed, and Opondo Kaluma, among others.
Between these rival poles sits a quieter, centrist bloc, figures like Ruth Odinga and moderate MPs who neither want to burn bridges nor rush succession battles.
They fear that premature contests for Raila’s mantle could fracture ODM beyond repair. Whether this stabilising force can withstand pressure from both sides remains uncertain, but it may be the only glue preventing the Orange house from splitting entirely.
The cracks emerge as some Kenya Kwanza leaders hint at a possible merger between the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and ODM to form a formidable political force aimed at securing Ruto’s second-term victory in 2027.
Speaking at an empowerment forum in Turbo, Uasin Gishu County, on Friday, Soy MP David Kiplagat said, “They have said let the President come and join ODM… so we can assure you that ODM and UDA will form a coalition to take government in 2027.”
The leaders warned opponents to prepare for a gruelling battle as they seek to secure President Ruto’s re-election.
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